Oil vs Gold: Transition to the Next Commodity Cycle

The chart compares WTI crude (top) and the Gold/Oil ratio (bottom) on a weekly basis.

Historically, when the Gold/Oil ratio spikes — meaning gold becomes very expensive relative to oil — it tends to mark the end of the precious metals phase and the beginning of the broader commodity cycle.

In the past three cycles:

-2009 → 2011: Oil +219%

-2016 → 2018: Oil +188%

-2020 → 2022: Oil +572%

We’re seeing the same setup again:

USOIL sits at long-term support.

Gold/Oil ratio has reached historical extremes.

In each of these cases, gold had already led the move — followed by silver, industrial metals, and finally oil — the last to rally as growth and inflation expectations picked up.

If history rhymes, this could mark the rotation point where energy begins to outperform within the commodity complex.