Maybe last bull before 43

2016년 9월 28일

I was rather surprised that the price rallied today on the announcement that there would be no decision in Algiers. It could be that the price was already factored into where we were trading this morning. The red lines indicate what I think will happen if that is the case, assuming a bull EIA (api/genscape draws).

Otherwise, people are still holding their positions for what I heard earlier this week would be an announcement by opec a half an hour before EIA and my overnight long on Tuesday gets sodomized. :D That would be the purple scenario.

2016년 9월 28일

노트

Closed longs very close to target. Opened up shorts, but closed them at 45.2 because I had initially read the report as being very bearish, but it was only bearish in relation to expectations and was actually a small bull.

We could see that the pipeline being damaged caused a surplus in gasoline stocks because people couldn't actually get their gas from pumps, when I had initially thought that the pipe and the largest refinery in the midwest being shut down unexpectedly for maintenance would cause a draw.

With OPEC still in play Europe had to close more of their positions than I think they normally would over night. We don't have enough capital in play to make new lows today without London. We could test 45, wait for OPEC decision and make our way back to 43 the remainder of the week.

Could see gasoline draw next week..+ hurricane. Probably won't break 43.