Effect of fundamentals on USOIL

2016년 9월 1일

OIl is now suffering from the over-hyped bull effect of opec. Friday's non farm payroll numbers will have a dramatic effect on the US dollar as a high jobs number will put further pressure on the Fed to hike rates in September. Oil will feel that effect.

2016년 9월 2일

노트

The NFP job numbers fell below expectation. In the end the effect on the US$ was in fact bullish, which should have sent oil further down. Traders don't want to give up the dollar as its the premier world currency and so has some immunity. Regardless of that other factors played on Oil, probably the strongest was Mr Putin giving some support to Iran's position and putting pressure on Saudi to come to the table with a deal. These are the sort of things oil traders respond to, rightly or wrongly. One of the risks in trading oil. Bottom line is that in the gossip department, the Fed will take to the sidelines in September, and Russia relation with OPEC will fuel various spikes. Fundamentals remain poor, and API and EIA weekly report are liable to contribute to the downside.