Fomenka

Oil is getting more and more interesting

FX:USOIL   크루드 오일 (WTI) CFDs
Oil continues throwing out complex patterns. I was stopped out today because oil decided to do a pronounced ABCDE as 4rth wave.

Over the last weeks, I observed that the oil has been moving in synchrony with SPX500. However, as SPX500 is approaching its top oil started diverging. Today oil fell when SPX500 was rallying. Still, it would probably take some macro event to make them decouple completely. We have a long weekend ahead of us. My bet is that SPX500 will not be going down significantly today hovering around 2950 going through a topping process. The oil will have some time to complete ABCDE flat pattern without much divergence.

Possibly shit will hit the fan over the weekend. HK protests together with Iran escalation or whatever something that will make oil rally and SPX500 crumble.

Negative divergence against RSI and the fact that oil pushed through all resistance does not favour an alternative bearish count, so I am staying long over the weekend.

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