The Great Economic/ Financial collapse: Oil and War (4/6)

2022년 2월 17일

Over the past few years we have seen oil prices do historic moves from going negative to now reaching dangerous levels. right now we are seeing demand for oil go up ever since the economy started to open up. as you can see on this chart i do think oil prices will continue to go up another 35% before they crash over 50%. ill tell you why i think oil will keeping going up and why it will eventually crash:

1. oil production:
over the past few years we have seen oil production rise as demand for it was risen after the economy started opening:
ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_production/chart/

this chart shows that we are almost at a record oil production.

2. Russia And Ukraine:

for the past month or so we have seen tensions rise as Russia Threatens to invade Ukraine. in my first post i talked about the Biden Putin call and how they wouldn't come into agreement. After the call happened it was said that they never came into agreement and tensions rose. a few days ago we had information talk about how Russia send troops back home but that was a lie, they brought more equipment into the border rising tensions again. this shows Russia lied and is taking this serious.
why is Russia sending in more troops? they want to invade Ukraine because they are scared they will join NATO... Russia does not want this because he sees it as a threat to Russia...
Would a war breakout?
yes, i think a war is very possible with Biden and Putin in power. i dont think Putin would send so much military equipment to the border for nothing. although the US said it wouldn't go to war with Russia i do think this is false. i do think eventually they will which will lead other NATO forces to join in leading to Russian Allies to join (China) this could be very bad for the world but good for oil prices. oil prices will rise if war happens since we will use it to produce machines. we will also need oil to run the machines which will lead prices to go up...


The Crash:

After we reach the target (36% increase) 123 per barrel i think markets will crash. why do i think this? slower economy due to interest rates and other market crashes..
i think once the economy slowers and markets crash oil will end up crashing....
if the economic collapse takes place oil prices will drop since no one will be using it and demand for it will drop which will lead to production to also drop.

on the chart you can see how 2006 and now are very similar. we had 1 dump before a huge pump and then a large spike followed by a large quick dump. i think we are doing the same now as in 2006. i think prices for oil will drop viscously once we reach our final target.