PreFed ZAR

7월 28일

The rand has been on the back foot in the second half of July despite the broad based dollar weakness which has seen the USDZAR pair touch a high of 18.53. The rand has however managed to pull the pair back below the 50-day MA rate at 18.30. The critical level to watch is the blue resistance range between 18.50 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 18.56. A failed break above this level will allow the rand to pull the pair back below the 18.00 handle towards 17.80. A break above the 200-day MA at 18.64 will however invalidate this move. The break out of the rising wedge is rand positive as well as the fact that is managed to close last week below the 50-day MA resistance rate.

8월 2일

노트

18.12 holding support.

Fed kept rates unchanged this week and the non-farm payrolls is way lower than expectations at 114 thousand, down from 179 thousand in June.

The US economy is clearly slowing looking at the employment trends and manufacturing PMI's are also dropping. Fed will most likely cut in September. A dark horse to watch is the BoJ rate hike as it is putting the carry trade under pressure which is negative for risk assets such as the rand as well as equities