The Russian ruble might come back under pressure soon

2015년 4월 14일

People are starting to talk about the Russian ruble again after 3 months of practically no chatter on the Twittersphere following the December RUB crisis. Amazingly, the ruble is one of the best currencies in 2015. Given the poor fundamentals in the Russian economy, I'm starting to become a bit skeptical on the potential for further USDRUB losses over the medium term (I told my Russian friends in December to hold tight and to NOT start converting to USD as there would likely be a bounce at the start of 2015 on people stopped talking about the RUB on CNBC). Looking at the USDRUB daily chart, I note that the RSI is in oversold territory for the first time since May 2014. At the same time, the USDRUB is about 100 pips from its 200-day moving average (49.47). I'd be looking for support and signs of bottoming somewhere between 47.70 (prior resistance in November) and 49.47. That said, I don't really believe that this pair is one that should be traded, and I'm not personally looking for any exposure here. I just think that the chart is interesting at a time where people are starting to talk about how much the ruble is bouncing back this year.