USD/PLN opportunity

2017년 6월 2일

This is only my analysis and I do not pretend to be expert, so, be careful.

I expect few moves the next few weeks. It follows the same logic than for my other post on EUR/CAD.

1) USD/PLN should stay quiet during this time, between 3.70 and 3.73-75, waiting for the news.
2) The PLN then, should be be strengthened because of the ECB decision rate the 9th June, breaking the 3.70 support to the next one at 3.6. European news are impacting the PLN, as a member of the Euro Area (even if Poland does not have the same currency, but by gravity).
The Polish economy is growing, the expected GDP (around 4%) is a good indicator of it; the good EUR performance and the business sentiment are positively impacting the PLN, pushing down the pair.
3) A correction should appear during the week, bringing the USD/PLN aroung 3.70.
4) As the markets are strongly expecting, the FED decision will improve the USD, then a move to 3.85 is 90% possible, if not even more.
In theory, a perfect move can be to short until 3.6 and to buy until the USD/PLN is reaching 3.85 ~ 200 pips.

In addition, the PLN is most likely to depreciate his currency, as it appears to be done every six months. The last interesting time that occured, was during the Trump election when the pair was at 4.27. If the PLN depreciates in the same time than USD appreciates, a move until 4 or 4.10 (if the 4 psychological resistance breaks) is not to exclude.

Good luck and trade safe.