Possible Triple Bottom and Bullish Divergence
NOKUSD was in a multi-year uptrend before COVID disrupted things.
We have now regressed far below where we were previously, and there is reason to think that a turnaround may be in store. At minimum, we are likely to catch a small bounce here.
1. Bullish divergence on volume-based indicators. With each of these three tests of 8.20, the OBV and Chaikin Money Flow have trended higher. This suggests that at least a small bounce is likely.
2. Longer term: NOK was in an uptrend prior to COVID, and this trend existed since 2011.
3. 2011 actually marked the end of a multi-decade downtrend, which was briefly disrupted by the 2008 recession, after which the prior trend resumed. Might the same thing happen this time, but in reverse?
4. The S&P 500 is starting to look overextended in an historically bearish seasonal period. A selloff would likely send the dollar higher against everything.
5. Lastly, and this probably isn't a good basis for a trade by itself, which is why I put it last, but you may have history on your side in this trade: “An analysis of the time-trend of U.S. dollar values over the course of a presidential term indicates that the U.S. dollar tends to start at a high value for Republican presidents and then depreciates, while the opposite pattern is true for Democrats.” walton.uark.edu/insights/the-almighty-dollar.php
We have now regressed far below where we were previously, and there is reason to think that a turnaround may be in store. At minimum, we are likely to catch a small bounce here.
1. Bullish divergence on volume-based indicators. With each of these three tests of 8.20, the OBV and Chaikin Money Flow have trended higher. This suggests that at least a small bounce is likely.
2. Longer term: NOK was in an uptrend prior to COVID, and this trend existed since 2011.
3. 2011 actually marked the end of a multi-decade downtrend, which was briefly disrupted by the 2008 recession, after which the prior trend resumed. Might the same thing happen this time, but in reverse?
4. The S&P 500 is starting to look overextended in an historically bearish seasonal period. A selloff would likely send the dollar higher against everything.
5. Lastly, and this probably isn't a good basis for a trade by itself, which is why I put it last, but you may have history on your side in this trade: “An analysis of the time-trend of U.S. dollar values over the course of a presidential term indicates that the U.S. dollar tends to start at a high value for Republican presidents and then depreciates, while the opposite pattern is true for Democrats.” walton.uark.edu/insights/the-almighty-dollar.php
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