USD/JPY 4-Hour Analysis: Week's Close #1 (26 Feb 2021)

2021년 2월 27일

The week ends with the market on the USD/JPY pair producing a high at 106.692. It approaches the weekly 50% major level of resistance with both a bearish divergence and a bullish convergence on the RSI, a conflicting information that induces us to think about a continuation in the bullish retracement of the previous weekly downtrend, but also keeping in mind that a double bearish divergence has higher probabilities and the market structure may show clearer signs of reversion to the downside, retracing on the current daily/4h move.

In relation to pip advances, the current swing-high has already advanced +47.3 pips above the previous swing-high, which is greater than the previous advance of +45.1 pips, leading us to think that the current upwards move is slightly accelerating. That may be intentional by the market manipulators, in order to grab the liquidity of longs in order to fill their short orders. Bear in mind that individual retracements of each 4h swing-high are increasing, from 59.247% on the first swing, to 61.438% on the second, and lastly 71.806% on the third.

If individual retracements on 4h swings keep on increasing at this rate, an over 100% retracement is possible, with price creating a lower low on the market structure, combining with an RSI convergence. All this price action and technical analysis can be considered for a moderate short bias.

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