Potential shorts around 118.00 setting up...

2016년 1월 21일

The USD/JPY shows that early morning trade in London was well-bid from mid-level support 116.50. This buying, as you can see, continued throughout the London session and into U.S. trade as well, resulting in price colliding with the H4 channel resistance line extended from the high 118.81.

For traders who are contemplating a sell from this barrier today, there is, at least technically, a good chance of a bounce being seen from here. Not only is there a psychological resistance looming just above at 118.00, it is also seen encapsulated by a daily supply zone drawn from 118.37-117.65. In addition to this, the approach to this sell zone is in the form of a very tasty Harmonic AB=CD bearish pattern completing just above 118.00 at 118.02.

However, before placing a pending order here, you may want to check out where price is coming from – a weekly support at 116.71! Therefore, there is a possibility that the market may ignore this sell zone completely. As such, waiting for lower timeframe confirmation before committing capital to this sell may be the best bet.

Should this market remain well-bid today and close above 118.00, however, this would, as far as we see, consume the majority of offers residing within the current daily supply and open up the gates for prices to challenge weekly resistance at 118.84. In the event that this comes to fruition, and lower timeframe buying confirmation is seen following the retest, we would look to jump in long here targeting the weekly resistance.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for offers to be consumed around 118.00 and look to trade the any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation required).
• Sells: 118.00 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).