USDJPY_105 2024.11.04 10:19:04 Trading Signal BUY

11월 4일

FrankPro Signal for USDJPY_105

Type: Screen
Signal: BUY
TP: 152.794
SL: 151.858
Entry Price: 151.975

Analysis for USDJPY

Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Probably Down LT=Probably Up

Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term):
[Method0] ST=Up LT=Up
[Method1] ST=Down LT=Down
[Method2] ST=Down LT=Up


Analysis Method(0)

Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair:

**Short-term (next few days to a week):**

* The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth.
* A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth.
* Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth.

**Expected price movement:** Up

**Long-term (next few weeks to a month):**

* The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks.
* The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth.
* Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness.

**Expected price movement:** Up

**Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view.

Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report.

Result: [Method0] ST=Up LT=Up


Analysis Method(1)

**Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):**

Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound.

Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken.

**Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):**

The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December.

However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year.

Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024.

Result: [Method1] ST=Down LT=Down


Analysis Method(2)

Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term:

**Short-term (next few days to a week):**

* The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen.
* The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound.
* However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline.
* Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45.

**Long-term (next few weeks to months):**

* The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
* The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board.
* The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term.
* Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00.

Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Result: [Method2] ST=Down LT=Up