Long Term Build Up

2023년 4월 16일

TLDR;
Order placed at the last zone of major show of support, just under the last group of rising highs on the 5 minute chart. Target the extreme most recent high, trading for the market to break the higher levels and reach up to the highest supply zone level as the trade target, stop will be a hedge order, because we have 600 pips to the bottom if this pair is changing trend to go down. Looking to target the 137.5-6 area. Using 51 pips of risk, just below the last major support level, expecting a sweep then go, a typical Yen behavior. 133.75 level is fairly weak as resistance, and is a bit obvious so likely to cause a fake-out, whipsaw sweep, and then blast through to the highs, using a few levels to relax along the way...



In Depth Look:
Taking a closer look at the consolidation for the USDJPY I can see a clear level around 133.75. Looking at the overall impact each time is showing a breakdown of that area. Highlighted in yellow are a series of strong bullish moves, one major move that set the range we are currently trading over the last week, and it has not been entirely used yet.

Starting from the beginning...

Giant push up that immediately turns south as soon as the resistance level is touched. Other buyers see the overall up trend in the market (4 hr), so they buy in near the top of the support before the major up move. This brings price into the level again fairly soon.

The sellers get a little overwhelmed, but eventually succeed in not only driving the market right back down, but also created a flag pattern, encouraging more shorts almost to the bottom of the range, but not quite....

At the second yellow box, major buying takes place, but not enough to really send the price up. The channel down is more sellers jumping in, holding price at a fairly good value buy area and orders fill to match the sells.

The third yellow box the major level near the bottom where price before gets a good reaction, and other traders get involved for buying now, as this is a fairly good value price for the range.

Volatility from this switch caused the lower level to be hit again, and immediately drive price back up into the level where not many are interested in selling.

Looking overall, the start of consolidation is just a mirror of what's going on in the last half of the consolidation, just in reverse...

What I expect to happen now with the stage set, is a shakeout style action that stops out the sellers remaining at the 133.75 level, then a failure on retest long to get more retail buyers in, then go straight for the buyer's stops around the level just below the yellow box bottoms, where most all buyers will have their stop set, making enough liquidity for the institutions to quickly load up more.

This could cause sellers to jump back in, targeting the bottom of the range from February, stops above, and we then see a quick rise to the most recent highs around 137.6-7, where a supply zone is waiting.....

5 minute chart is not extremely relevant, but just because.... Doesn't it look like a dragon? How "yen" of this pair 😂The mirrored consolidation makes me think of yin and yang, and the dragon isn't far off from describing the actual price action, I just made the lines a little artsy after I analyzed... Looking at the most recent bottom we see gradually rising highs, and the yen will likely sweep under these lows to the bottom most level of the range, where it last showed support at 131.920, fill and then start the move back up and continue it's long term trend.

Legs are V patterns and the volatility spike, showing the bullish buildup then a consolidation to the upper levels again. What the yen will normally do is try to go higher, then after showing bullish pushes, it will sweep, then go. Yen pairs typically will move a lot, and not go anywhere at all. The USDYEN in particular likes to make this move on shorter times frames. Overall we are in between 2 extreme points of highs and lows, but the 4 hour chart shows the price pushing/breaking out of a of a large "W" top resistance