USD/JPY bearish south of 200-day SMA
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Leaving demand at 105.70/106.66 unopposed, price action established a healthy bullish recovery into the close, inviting an approach to the 200-day SMA at 108.31, adding nearly 50 points on the week.
Should a close higher transpire, active supply is limited according to local price action until we near the 111.30 region along with familiar supply at 112.64/112.10.
H4 timeframe:
Familiar supply at 108.88/108.49, an area of supply that contained upside earlier in the week, re-emerged in the closing stages of play Friday. A rejection from this angle this week potentially confirms a rangebound market on this timeframe, with the lower boundary coming in at demand from 106.75/107.22.
Areas outside of the said zones has supply resting at 109.71/109.20, and a supply-turned demand at 105.75/105.17 as the next obvious platform (positioned a few points south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99) to the downside.
H1 timeframe:
Early trade Friday witnessed a mild fakeout north of 108 – this was likely a bull trap as price swiftly reverted to lows of 107.80. Heading into London, however, a more decisive move higher materialised, leading to an approach towards the underside of ‘stacked’ supply at 108.90/108.62. Directly above we can see a demand-turned supply forms at 108.84/109.23, housing the round number 109 within its lower limit.
In terms of the 100-period SMA, the value is seen drifting a touch beneath 108, currently trading at 107.83. With respect to the RSI indicator, we traded from overbought levels and are seen bottoming ahead of 50.00.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term:
USD/JPY is unlikely to reflect a bullish stance until we decisively firm above the 200-day SMA; this, technically speaking, clears the path for higher levels.
Shorter term:
The fact we’re coming from a 200-day SMA value, a H4 supply at 108.88/108.49 and stacked H1 supply (lower boundary) at 108.90/108.62, a dip back to 108 could be in the offing in early trade this week on the H1, with the possibility of a fakeout emerging to the 100-period SMA.
Most traders, however, will likely want to see a retest at 108.90/108.62 before engaging, as price currently trades in no man’s land right now, according to chart studies on the H1.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Leaving demand at 105.70/106.66 unopposed, price action established a healthy bullish recovery into the close, inviting an approach to the 200-day SMA at 108.31, adding nearly 50 points on the week.
Should a close higher transpire, active supply is limited according to local price action until we near the 111.30 region along with familiar supply at 112.64/112.10.
H4 timeframe:
Familiar supply at 108.88/108.49, an area of supply that contained upside earlier in the week, re-emerged in the closing stages of play Friday. A rejection from this angle this week potentially confirms a rangebound market on this timeframe, with the lower boundary coming in at demand from 106.75/107.22.
Areas outside of the said zones has supply resting at 109.71/109.20, and a supply-turned demand at 105.75/105.17 as the next obvious platform (positioned a few points south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99) to the downside.
H1 timeframe:
Early trade Friday witnessed a mild fakeout north of 108 – this was likely a bull trap as price swiftly reverted to lows of 107.80. Heading into London, however, a more decisive move higher materialised, leading to an approach towards the underside of ‘stacked’ supply at 108.90/108.62. Directly above we can see a demand-turned supply forms at 108.84/109.23, housing the round number 109 within its lower limit.
In terms of the 100-period SMA, the value is seen drifting a touch beneath 108, currently trading at 107.83. With respect to the RSI indicator, we traded from overbought levels and are seen bottoming ahead of 50.00.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term:
USD/JPY is unlikely to reflect a bullish stance until we decisively firm above the 200-day SMA; this, technically speaking, clears the path for higher levels.
Shorter term:
The fact we’re coming from a 200-day SMA value, a H4 supply at 108.88/108.49 and stacked H1 supply (lower boundary) at 108.90/108.62, a dip back to 108 could be in the offing in early trade this week on the H1, with the possibility of a fakeout emerging to the 100-period SMA.
Most traders, however, will likely want to see a retest at 108.90/108.62 before engaging, as price currently trades in no man’s land right now, according to chart studies on the H1.
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