Rally finished, bears about to show their strength again.

2024년 1월 7일

USDJPY recently completed the first phase of the accumulation cycle, indicating the beginning of the subsequent stage, propelled by the sustained bearish momentum of the dollar. Despite conflicting signals from the RSI and MACD, both suggesting a bullish trend, the price action displayed a failed ChoCH followed by a bearish rejection below the swing high from December 19th.

During this consolidation phase, close observation is key. Monitoring the JXY's upward momentum alongside USDJPY's indications of either accumulation or distribution will be crucial. I'm currently maintaining my short position initiated on November 14th. However, any attempts by the dollar to rally in the upcoming week would render this analysis invalid.

Considering the upcoming CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, there's potential for a liquidity sweep, possibly erasing the low set on December 28th. USDJPY typically doesn't linger in consolidation for long periods and might resume its upward trajectory, especially considering the robust RSI and MACD signals observed on the monthly and weekly charts.