UPDATE #1: USDJPY - Let's Go Surfing Alternate Scenario + Cypher

In my previous post on this pair (see Related Ideas: "USDJPY: Let's Go Surfing! Catch A Wave 3."), I posted a possible wave count that included a wave 3 possibility.

This chart is a closeup of the POTENTIAL bearish crab pattern I also posted in the previous post. This crab may play a role in determining the next move whether it will continue higher in as part of a wave 3 up or if it is part of the abc zigzag within a developing triangle. If prices fill this crab (and also the larger bearish cypher pattern) and do not violate it's PRZ as well as the X point of the cypher, then we should see this alternate scenario take place and a consolidation of some sort occur extending wave (iv) whether it be this triangle pattern or some other kind of complex corrective wave.

Here I am posting an alternate scenario (can't claim credit for it as it was brought to my attention by a fellow member, Donaldsaw) that I actually favor. Still catching a "wave 3" right now but it's a c wave of an abc zigzag. Not as exciting, I know. It will be very easy to know which way prices will unfold. If current PA exceeds 125.846 (the recent high) and breaks the bearish cypher pattern, then the first scenario I posted is more likely and this alternate scenario will be broken. However, if prices respect the recent high and follows the cypher down accordingly, then this alternate scenario will prevail.

From a standpoint of the crowd mentality and sentiment, this alternate scenario also makes more sense. Currently, the retail market is about 45%/55% buyers to sellers. This favors consolidation and not a trend.