USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

2023년 6월 4일

Past week saw a decline from its peak of 82.78 towards 82.23. As observed in the previous blog the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Only a close below 81.70 favors further lower levels. At least for the moment, it appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.70 and 82.70. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. Market is expecting 81.80-83.10 will be protected. Deeper correction is long overdue

The pair has a tendency to make surprise moves when most in the market do not expect.

A few more observations:
• The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
• The currency pair made one more attempt towards 83
• Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation
• As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
o This range is continuing to be protected
o Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair


Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.