Sideways movement predicted for
USDCNH
till the end of 2017. Nothing to see here, move on to another pair.
Fundamentals
-CNY fixing
(Higher swaps -> lesser short interest)
(Authority looking to keep yuan stable. Volatile Yuan -> Bad for economy)
-Fed Rate Decision
(Yuan least affected by fed decision -> see capital flows for direction of currency)
-Balance of Payments
(Don't expect BOP to deviate in extreme fashion -> See FX reserves)
-Devalued Yuan is providing support to economy -> improvement in industrial profits
Technicals
Strong resistance at 7.0, Support expected to deviate between 6.7 - 6.75
Black Swan Events
-Real Estate Bubble pops - 20% (Personally, I do not expect the bubble to pop in 2017. Open for debate)
No further explanation needed
-Donald Trump - 5% (North Korea deal informally reached? -> See Xi's visit to US)
"China is a currency manipulator" -> competitive devaluation
USDCNH
till the end of 2017. Nothing to see here, move on to another pair. Fundamentals
-CNY fixing
(Higher swaps -> lesser short interest)
(Authority looking to keep yuan stable. Volatile Yuan -> Bad for economy)
-Fed Rate Decision
(Yuan least affected by fed decision -> see capital flows for direction of currency)
-Balance of Payments
(Don't expect BOP to deviate in extreme fashion -> See FX reserves)
-Devalued Yuan is providing support to economy -> improvement in industrial profits
Technicals
Strong resistance at 7.0, Support expected to deviate between 6.7 - 6.75
Black Swan Events
-Real Estate Bubble pops - 20% (Personally, I do not expect the bubble to pop in 2017. Open for debate)
No further explanation needed
-Donald Trump - 5% (North Korea deal informally reached? -> See Xi's visit to US)
"China is a currency manipulator" -> competitive devaluation