USDCHF → Retest of trend support. The market is waiting for NFP

2023년 6월 2일

USDCHF is in an upward price channel. Within the up-trend, the price updates the maximum to 0.91475 and forms a technical pullback to the support of the uptrend. Important news are published today. What to expect from the price?

The currency pair is approaching the support at 0.90291 and the lower boundary of the uptrend. From the point of view of technical analysis we should expect the continuation of growth from the support. But NFP & UR are published today.
Against the background of yesterday's preliminary data, when the ADP showed a bullish performance, there is a possibility that the NFP might also show good dynamics for the USD. In this case the currency pair will strengthen, but based on expectations:
Average Hourly Earnings - analysts expect data may be worse than last period
Nonfarm Payrolls - analysts expect the data to be bearish for the dollar.
Unemployment Rate - analysts expect worse data for the dollar
The market is waiting for the dollar to weaken and if so, the currency pair may break its trend support.



Strong support: 0.90291, 0.89964, uptrend channel support
Strong resistance: 0.90736, 0.91475.
From the point of view of technical analysis we should expect growth in price, but as strong news are expected today, we have to be careful and try to close some trades or take the stop-losses 20-15 minutes before the news.

Regards R. Linda!

2023년 6월 2일

노트

Today I talked about how fundamental data can be very influential, even if the technical analysis showed a good bullish setup.

What's going on?
The ADP report came out yesterday before NFP, which is preliminary data.
The ADP report was positive for NFP, which showed us an actual number of 339k instead of the expected 180k. And that is a very strong bullish signal for the dollar

With the right technical analysis and fundamental analysis, and with the right interpretation of this tandem, you could see when and how the price reaction should be expected.

What do we see? Right! The currency pair is rising right after the USD index.