USDCHF | Possible Short opportunity

2022년 9월 24일

Dear All, this is my first public analysis so I would really appreciate your feedback!

Overview:

In early September there was an impulse down move from the Supply Zone (H4 SZ). On the 13 of September (U.S. CPI release date) price reached approx. 0,948 level and the Demand Zone (DZ 1) was created. The impulsive move from the DZ 1 left the Fair Value Gap (FVG) behind. The week after that USDCHF was consolidating (accumulating liquidity). It lasted until the 22 of September when the Switzerland interest rate decision was announced. The news was followed by another Fair Value Gap and the impulsive move that led the price to the Supply Zone.

Entry; Targets; Exit:

As an entry point, I will consider the H4 SZ, more specifically H1 refined SZ + confirmation.
As a primary target, I will consider the upper FVG closure and the DZ 2.
As a second target, I will consider the lower FVG closure and the DZ1. But it will depend on price action, once the first target is reached.
As the exit from the position, I will consider the breakout through the H4 SZ, however, it is important to keep in mind that Stop Hunt may take place.

Risk:

The main risk is a strengthening dollar. On Tuesday (27.09.2022) U.S. Home Sales and Durable Goods data will be announced. Positive results may cause the USDCHF growth.


P.S. All the Fair Value Gaps are set on 4 hours timeframe.
P.S.S. Do not forget about the risk and money management

Thank you and good luck!