USD/CHF Analysis: Potential Major Decline Pending Confirmation

6월 17일

Overview: The USD/CHF currency pair, after breaking its ascending trendline visible on the daily timeframe, is on the verge of a significant decline. The critical condition for this bearish move is the closing of a 4-hour candle below 0.88920. The confirmation of this break requires the candle to be of substantial size and without a long shadow.

Trade Setup:
• Entry Trigger: Wait for the 4-hour candle to close below 0.88920.
• Confirmation: Ensure the candle has a substantial body with minimal or no long shadow.
Entry Strategy:
• If the 4-hour candle closes below 0.88920, initiate a sell position.
• If the specified entry trigger is missed, use the RSI indicator as an alternative signal. Enter the sell trade with the candle that causes the RSI to enter the oversold zone (below 30).
Stop Loss:
• Initial Stop Loss: Place the stop loss above the shadow of the candle that triggers the entry.
• Conservative Stop Loss: For a more conservative approach, place the stop loss above the last swing high.
Risk Management: Ensure proper risk management by calculating position size according to your risk tolerance and adhering to stop loss placements.
Chart Analysis:
• Daily Timeframe: Observed a break of the ascending trendline.
• 4-Hour Timeframe: Awaiting a confirming candle close below 0.88920 for entry.
Indicators:
• RSI: Monitor RSI for entering the oversold zone as an alternative entry signal.
Summary: The USD/CHF pair is poised for a significant decline contingent upon a confirmed break below 0.88920 on the 4-hour timeframe. Adhering to the outlined entry and stop loss strategies will enhance the probability of a successful trade.