Our take on the USD/CHF market right now...
Leaving the 0.94 handle unchallenged, the USD/CHF edged lower on Tuesday, bottoming a few pips ahead of the 0.93 handle. Although the daily Quasimodo support at 0.9330 remains in the fray, buyers are struggling to register anything of note here. This could have something to do with the fact that weekly price shows that the market could potentially drop as far south as a weekly support coming in at 0.9163 (not seen on the screen).
Market direction:
We still have our eye on the 0.9450 region for potential shorts, since this area (shown in green) is surrounded by the underside of a weekly resistance base at 0.9443, a daily resistance at 0.9444, a H4 mid-level resistance at 0.9450 and a H4 50.0% resistance value at 0.9465 taken from the high 0.9640. However, this may not come into view today.
Other than 0.9450, we’re also watching for a break of the 0.93 handle since this likely opens the path south down to a daily Quasimodo support at 0.9233. A H4 close beneath 0.93 alongside a solid retest would, in our view, be enough to encourage sellers into the market and bring the unit lower.
Data points to consider: US ADP non-farm employment change at 1.15pm; Employment cost index q/q at 1.30pm; US pending home sales at 3pm; US FOMC and Federal funds rate decision at 7pm GMT.
Market direction:
We still have our eye on the 0.9450 region for potential shorts, since this area (shown in green) is surrounded by the underside of a weekly resistance base at 0.9443, a daily resistance at 0.9444, a H4 mid-level resistance at 0.9450 and a H4 50.0% resistance value at 0.9465 taken from the high 0.9640. However, this may not come into view today.
Other than 0.9450, we’re also watching for a break of the 0.93 handle since this likely opens the path south down to a daily Quasimodo support at 0.9233. A H4 close beneath 0.93 alongside a solid retest would, in our view, be enough to encourage sellers into the market and bring the unit lower.
Data points to consider: US ADP non-farm employment change at 1.15pm; Employment cost index q/q at 1.30pm; US pending home sales at 3pm; US FOMC and Federal funds rate decision at 7pm GMT.
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