USDCAD Potential 4h bearish setup

2018년 11월 17일Here is my analysis for USDCAD next week until the release of CAD CPI :)

MONTHLY:
OVERRALL BEARISH SUPERTREND...

WEEKLY:
PRICE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE TOP OF THE BEARISH SUPERTREND INSIDE A CONTINUATION PATTERN.

DAILY:
PRICE IS INSIDE A DAILY CONTINUATION PATTERN. IF WE COMPARE THIS TF TO THE WEEKLY WE CAN SEE THAT WE NOW HAVE
A PATTERN-WITHIN-A-PATTERN WHICH INCREASES OUR PROBABILITY OF BEING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MARKET.
IN REGARDS TO MARKET SENTIMENT A LOT OF INDIVIDUAL TRADERS HAVE LIQUIDATED THEIR SHORT-POSITIONS AND ARE NOW LONG
WHICH IS ALSO GOOD FOR US (BEARISH TRADERS), NET-SHORTS ARE NOW -13.7% COMPARED TO LAST WEEK.

4H & 1H:
I EXPECT A SHORT BEARISH FLAG TO FORM ABOVE THE CURRENT TRENDFLOOR OF THE DAILY CONTINUATION PATTERN.
IN MY OPINION I WOULD EXECUTE A SHORT POSITION AROUND 1.32 (RISK-ENTRY) AND SET MY INITIAL SL AT -30PIPS.
FIRST TARGET IS LOCATED AT 1.313. IF PRICE REACHES OUR FIRST TARGET WE CAN EXPECT IT TO FORM ANOTHER FLAG PATTERN
OR CONSOLIDATE BEFORE BEARS GAIN MAJORITY AND PUSH PRICE LOWER. CAD CPI WILL ALSO BE RELEASED NEXT FRIDAY... THIS
MAY START THE REAL BEARISH RALLY OR IN WORST CASE LIQUIDATE MY EXECUTED POSITIONS AND PUT ME AT A 1% LOSS :)

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