Tasty harmonics seen on USD/CAD this morning...

2018년 7월 26일

USD/CAD, as you can see, came under pressure on Wednesday, influenced by the recent Trump/Juncker meeting and robust oil prices. Following an extension off the previous day’s high 1.3191, H4 price destroyed support at 1.3116 as well as the 1.31 handle, and is now attempting a break of July’s opening level positioned at 1.3045. The other key thing to note on the H4 timeframe is the key figure 1.30. Not only is the number watched across the board, it also boasts an ABCD (green arrows) 161.8% Fib ext. point.

Supporting 1.30 is also a daily demand area at 1.2949-1.3038. Within this zone we see support standing at 1.3001 along with a 61.8% daily Fib support at 1.2982. The only concern right now is the fact that we have traded below weekly support at 1.3086.

Areas of consideration:

Given the confluence seen bolstering 1.30 on the H4 timeframe (H4 ABCD approach, daily support at 1.3001/61.8% daily Fib support at 1.2982), a bounce from here is a reasonable possibility, despite weekly price edging beneath support.

Conservative traders may opt to wait for H4 price to print candle confirmation (a full or near-full-bodied bull candle will suffice) prior to pressing the buy button. The reasoning behind this is due the chance of a fakeout through 1.30 to tag in buyers from the daily 61.8% Fib support mentioned above at 1.2982.

Today’s data points: US durable goods orders m/m; US unemployment claims.