USDCAD: Weekly Chart - Showing large move down

What I am seeing is going to happen is that this pair will have a rather large retrace in what could be a wave 4 down before we get a large move up and over the recent highs.

There is a minor sr structure overhead as well as the .618 retrace of the entire monthly downtrend that prices have bumped up against. This high is being retested right now and a failure to break above will trigger this large move down. If it solidly breaks over the recent highs, then this scenario is off and we are seeing the beginning of a new uptrend.

There is also a POTENTIAL cypher that has formed and its completion should mark the end of the retrace. If prices fail to break the highs, then prices should descend along the CD leg of this cypher.