Oil's bearish trendline has done a good job at keeping a lid on any buying impulses recently. Yesterday, we saw a strong rejection at this resistance. Overnight and this morning, we're seeing some consolidation right below the $31 level. We could see a bullish breach when pit trading opens at 9am. Today is an oil futures options expiration day. These are typically bullish days for crude. $30 puts expiring at 2:30pm have massive open interest @ 13.3k contracts. I find it unlikely to think dealers won't be strongly supporting the front month contract above that $30 level. We can't see subsequent weakness in CAD with a bounce higher in oil. I would take some profit here and wait for resolution with oil today before adding to a long position.
