USD/CAD: Eyes on inflation as reversal sets stage for downside

The Canadian dollar delivered a reversal signal against the greenback on Monday, with USD/CAD printing a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. After trading within an uptrend since early November, this suggests directional risks could be turning, even if momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD are yet to confirm.

USD/CAD briefly tried to bounce during the Asian session but stalled at 1.4034, the low from last Friday. For those considering shorts, this level provides a decent setup, allowing for entry beneath with a tight stop above for protection.

To make the trade stack up from a risk/reward perspective, it will require the price to break minor support at 1.4003 first, opening the path toward 1.3959, a level that acted as resistance in late October and early November.

Today’s inflation report is a standout in a slow global data week. The annual CPI rate is expected to climb from 1.6% to 1.9% in October, nearing the midpoint of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 1-3% target range. Core inflation, which is the average of Statistics Canada’s trim and median CPI readings, is expected to print at 2.4%, slightly above September’s pace.

With the BoC forecasting core inflation of 2.3% by December, a result in line with market expectation should do little to diminish the view that further rate cuts are in the pipeline. However, an upside surprise could see the BoC start to slow the pace of easing. Such an outcome would improve the prospects of the trade succeeding.

Good luck!
DS