Sometimes the best position is NO position...

2018년 12월 18일

Kicking this market off from the top this morning, weekly supply at 1.3540-1.3387 (houses the 2017 yearly opening level within at 1.3434) remains in the fold. This, as you can probably see from the chart, is a notable supply zone that could eventually prove troublesome for buyers. A move lower from this point will likely target support coming in at 1.3223.

Despite weekly structure, daily flow recently crossed above resistance coming in at 1.3387 (essentially represents the underside of weekly supply). This, by and of itself, possibly unlocks the door towards resistance priced in at 1.3533 (not seen on the screen, though is located within the upper limit of the current weekly supply).

Although the greenback experienced broad-based selling pressure Monday, the USD/CAD managed to remain in positive territory as the Canadian dollar struggled to find demand amid a selloff in oil markets. Although H4 price reclaimed 1.34+ status, though, notably large supply is visible overhead at 1.3472-1.3422.

Areas of consideration:

Neither a long nor short is attractive at this time.

As we have weekly supply in play at 1.3540-1.3387, along with H4 price nearing the underside of a H4 supply residing around 1.3472-1.3422, buying this market, despite daily price suggesting higher levels, is incredibly chancy from a technical perspective.

At the same time, selling this pair, although firmly in agreement with both weekly and H4 structure, nearby support could emerge off 1.34 and also daily support mentioned above at 1.3387.

Today’s data points: US Building Permits and Housing Starts.