2H Trend Turn in USDCAD
An exercise in forecasting is always like venturing out onto a thin limb, but this 2H sequence is so fascinating, I thought I'd go ahead and put this out there.
I know my analysis looks confusing. Let me attempt a brief (hopefully not confusing) explanation...
The various callout tags represent different processes playing out. Each process has it's own unique count.
The red and blue triangles and squares are all the count points in the sequence.
The red arrows are FCT's (Fractured Counter Trends) - these are important in counting...
The main sequence here is called 'the cycle' - it's a repeating 2, 4, 6 count that usually skips FCT terminals (unless a 'count-through' signal appears)
The bolded '6' tags are where the cycle ends.
The red tags form the 'type' which is mirrored at the end of a trend by the 'antitype' (red/gray tags).
In this sequence the type could be pointing to a 6/4 antitype to follow the cycle. From the current (rightmost 'event' (count point)) that indicates a 4-count followed by a new high (above 1.27020). If that happens, it should end the sequence/trend. A number of other things line up well with this scenario. Both prime sets (yellow and orange tags) hit 4 and 12 respectively at that point.
Also at that point, well count a trending count of 10 (6+4 (see yellow prime set)) and an FCT count of 10 (6+2+2).
If more or fewer than 4 points are created prior to the high the scenario is nullified.
Although the initial prime set (yellow) allows for the trend to have ended, the second set (orange) and the type do not allow it. So I believe there's a good chance we'll see the high tonight or tomorrow.
Gauging what will follow the high is anyone's guess (although subsequent sequences do tend to re-use values), market forecasting really hinges on what the current sequence tells you about it's own ending.
Place your stop loss above the absolute high event (mark) to the tune of whatever the spread is - usually 1-2 pips works for me.
Enjoy watching this play out, and have a good night!
I know my analysis looks confusing. Let me attempt a brief (hopefully not confusing) explanation...
The various callout tags represent different processes playing out. Each process has it's own unique count.
The red and blue triangles and squares are all the count points in the sequence.
The red arrows are FCT's (Fractured Counter Trends) - these are important in counting...
The main sequence here is called 'the cycle' - it's a repeating 2, 4, 6 count that usually skips FCT terminals (unless a 'count-through' signal appears)
The bolded '6' tags are where the cycle ends.
The red tags form the 'type' which is mirrored at the end of a trend by the 'antitype' (red/gray tags).
In this sequence the type could be pointing to a 6/4 antitype to follow the cycle. From the current (rightmost 'event' (count point)) that indicates a 4-count followed by a new high (above 1.27020). If that happens, it should end the sequence/trend. A number of other things line up well with this scenario. Both prime sets (yellow and orange tags) hit 4 and 12 respectively at that point.
Also at that point, well count a trending count of 10 (6+4 (see yellow prime set)) and an FCT count of 10 (6+2+2).
If more or fewer than 4 points are created prior to the high the scenario is nullified.
Although the initial prime set (yellow) allows for the trend to have ended, the second set (orange) and the type do not allow it. So I believe there's a good chance we'll see the high tonight or tomorrow.
Gauging what will follow the high is anyone's guess (although subsequent sequences do tend to re-use values), market forecasting really hinges on what the current sequence tells you about it's own ending.
Place your stop loss above the absolute high event (mark) to the tune of whatever the spread is - usually 1-2 pips works for me.
Enjoy watching this play out, and have a good night!
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