Medium Term Short?

Trying to broaden my analysis tools: Contracting Triangle + Elliot Waves.
Here goes: I think given the contracting triangle and the 3 legs up, 2 down, this could be a reversal pattern. The top down sloping resistance is unexpected. To me the tilt has tipped off the long term up channel. I know the USD has been through a period of weakness, hence the appearance of the down channel, then regained strength, but on this dollar cross and also the EURUSD, there is a definite resistance/support, that shows as quite long wicks on last weeks closing candles. This is also true of the DXY, a sign of fairly sharp closing dollar longs.
Set up, then is good for short, a tight stop, if it develops, a trailing stop to suit
I think forex markets will hang in stasis quite a bit over this week as all eyes to the US bond markets, very much so, as it would appear any notion of a return to low rates are evaporating heavenward. There will be a very short term small pullback. I think but I expect consolidation just below the current level, any move to or over 3% on the TNX will start to weaken the dollar quite considerably. I think that's right (?).
Which will give the required 'melt ' off the current triangle structure.
(These 'taper on' knee jerk reactions of the markets are quite probably false froth. I tend to go with the opinion the Fed will only taper when it's hand forced to support the dollar.)