Global macro overview for 11/04/2017: USD/CAD 4h Time Frame

2017년 4월 11일

The Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy added 19,400 jobs in March, following the preceding month's gain of 15,300 and surpassing the market expectations for an increase of 5,700. Moreover, the data also showed that 18,400 full-time jobs and 1,000 part-time jobs were created last month and the jobless rate increased to 6.7% from 6.6% in February. Nevertheless, despite upbeat reports from the Canadian job market, global investors do not expect the Bank of Canada to increase the overnight rate at the meeting this Thursday. In his last remarks, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said that the Canadian economy has a lot of room to improve yet and the bank is more focused on sustaining the current pace of growth and prepares for unexpected economical headwinds. In conclusion, any interest rate hike in Thursday by BoC will be a huge surprise for the markets.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has broken out below the 61%Fibo at the level of 1.3336 and the local low from April 7. At present, the H4 chart shows a deceleration, which may result in an upward correction. This scenario is supported by a stochastic oscillator that is moving close to the oversold zone. Potential rebound may take the form of a return trip to the previous support at the level of 1.3342.