S&P 500- Full analysis on US indexes

업데이트됨

Hello traders!
We are now going for a full breakdown on the situation on the two main us indexes: sp500 and nasdaq100.
As per our previous sequence on post, we believe there are two possible scenarios in place.
First scenario:
The index is still finishing cycle correction and is in wave 3 of C pointing to new lows.

This was our main scenario and will be definitely invalidated if sp500 breaks it previous high at 4136.
This scenario would be still in place in the following form:

However, we believe that this scenario lost quite a bit of odds and is now the least likely, given bullish smart money indicator, breakout and retest of main descending trendline sustained by volumes (look at the weekly and daily POCs) and the structure of the price action.
It' s impossible to count 5 wave down from yesterday's top, the movement seems indeed corrective, while it is possible to label 5 waves to the upside on lower (hourly) time frames.
Second scenario:
We believe indeed that the previous second scenario has now become the most probable: it believes that we are in a correction to the upside for a primary wave (B), as labeled in the main chart of this post. The main targets for this (B) wave (ABC to the upside) are in the 4300 area, but this can extend much higher, and even transform into an impulse (or nasdaq can do a blow off top in a macro irregular flat).
On the lower tf's we can see as priced retraced in the golden zone and the micro count suggest we should be in wave iii of c of C of (B).

To validate this micro count, price should take off recent high at 4040. Bullish count will be definitely validated above 4136.
We plan to search for long setup if we found some bullish patterns, and to start to research possible long setups on us stocks.
We will publish more analysis and setup as the bull scenario gains in probability by taking out previously mentioned levels.
If you have any questions or ideas, please comment. We will be glad ;)

코멘트