Breakdown in SPX is a possibility

Observation on SPX
1) Since 25TH April the SPX was bouncing on its 20 Ema . In fact if you bought every time SPX touched the 20 EMA you would have made money .
2) The 20 Ema acted as a support 6 times .
3) But notice the last three bounces were weaker and weaker .
4) 7 time the 20 Ema broke with increasing volume .
Conclusion the probability of a break down is very high almost 75%