US 30 TRADE IDEA 1 SEPTEMBER 2025

This week, the US30 is trading within a short-term descending channel, signaling a corrective phase rather than a full reversal, while the higher timeframe structure remains bullish. Price is approaching a key demand zone between 45,200 and 45,150, where liquidity is likely to be swept before a potential continuation higher. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, this area aligns with a bullish order block that could drive price back toward the 45,600–45,800 region once buyers step in. However, a clean break below 45,000 would invalidate this setup and open room for further downside toward 44,850–44,700. Fundamentally, the focus will be on US labor market data, including jobless claims and the upcoming NFP release, as signs of a cooling labor market may reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts later in the year, supporting equities. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data or hawkish Fed commentary could pressure the Dow in the short term. Overall, the primary bias is bullish after a liquidity grab around 45,200–45,150, with upside targets near 45,800, but traders should remain cautious of a bearish continuation if 45,000 fails to hold.