US30 Outlook – 08/04/25

The Dow Jones (US30) has shown a strong recovery from the recent low at 36,743, bouncing nearly 1,900 points after a steep selloff. Price is now consolidating just under the 38,800 level — a key short-term resistance zone.

🔍 Technical Breakdown:
✅ EMA crossover on the 1H suggests a shift in short-term momentum to the upside

❗️38,800–39,200 is the immediate resistance zone to clear

📉 Macro trend remains bearish unless bulls reclaim 40,000+

🔻 Below 38,000, bears may regain control and retest 37,300 → 36,743

🧭 Bias:
Neutral-Bearish in the macro view

Bullish short-term if price holds above 38,400 and breaks 38,800 cleanly

📌 Levels to Watch:
Support: 38,400 / 37,300 / 36,743

Resistance: 38,800 / 39,200 / 40,000

🧠 Summary:
This bounce looks strong, but it's still a relief rally within a bearish structure. Bulls need a confirmed breakout above 39,200 to flip the narrative. Until then, treat rallies with caution and keep an eye on momentum shifts at resistance.