US10YR Seems to Head to 5.2%

2023년 9월 10일

US short term funding requirements (33% of existing debt to mature next year) + a clean unbroken trend seems to head the 10 yr yield to 5.2%. This view doesn't constitute investment advice.

2023년 9월 10일

노트

5.2% creates a 30 yr old resistance, so it will be interesting the speed, rate of change and "how it gets there" (the shape it creates), to see where it is headed after.

2024년 4월 20일

노트

5.2% has been the level where things get interesting: being the double top in the GFC, a strong support from 1993 to 2000, where it became the top.

US rates will continue their long term way upwards until something fundamental, like a recession, ends this trend and forces policy in the opposite direction.