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US10YR: Drop Below 100 Could Trigger Higher Bond Yields Globally

업데이트됨

The Fed is ready to reduce it's balance sheet starting now.

Quote: "The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, accumulated during the heart of the 2007-’09 financial crisis, also is expected to have a tightening effect on rates, pushing them higher along with the central bank’s rate-hike efforts. Wall Street is pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a rate increase before the end of 2017, up from around 37% about a month ago, according to CME Group data.

To mute the impact, the Fed is expected to take baby steps in the unwind. The current plan calls for the balance sheet to initially shrink by only $10 billion a month. The pace of the rundown would then increase by $10 billion every quarter, up to a maximum of $50 billion a month."

Quote: "The effect of the central bank’s unprecedented asset unwind is unknown, as the Federal Reserve is the first to attempt to wind down a legacy of post-financial crisis monetary policy."
Source: marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-slip-as-traders-brace-for-fed-meeting-2017-09-19?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

노트

Diffrent view in January 2017: Click on the chart to load new bars and to read some comments.

노트

Fed's Harker sees three rate hikes next year, after one more in 2017
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/feds-harker-sees-three-rate-hikes-next-year-after-one-more-in-2017-537294

노트

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: FED IS SUPPORTING MORE UPSIDEMOMENTUM FOR GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS
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Bullard: Fed 'should defend' inflation target or risk losing credibility
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QUOTE:
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
The central bank risks losing credibility, and perhaps triggering a recession, if it continues to insist on "normalization" without better evidence that prices are firming, he said in an interview with Reuters.
"If you are going to have an inflation target you should defend it. If you say you are going to hit the inflation target then you should try to hit it and maintain credibility," Bullard said in an interview with Reuters."
investing.com/news/economy-news/bullard-fed-should-defend-inflation-target-risks-losing-credibility-otherwise-540661

노트

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: US TAX REFORM

Remark: US TAX cuts likel to cut tax revenues as well. US T-Bonds should face more headwinds and pressure long term.

Quote: "If Senate can pass budget resolution, tax cuts have strong chance: Zoellick
Source: marketwatch.com/story/if-senate-can-pass-budget-resolution-tax-cuts-have-good-chance-zoellick-2017-10-14?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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