Bullish pattern apparent will can it break out?

The current situation:

1. An inverse head and shoulders pattern is apparent on the 1HR chart, with the neckline at about 3.45 USD and the measured breakout target to be at about 3.75 USD. Currently the immediate resistance is the 12HR 21MA, above which the price action has not closed above since September selloff.

The bullish case: a solid 12HR candle close above the 21MA will make a convincing case that the downtrend may be broken and this is the start of a reversal.

The bearish case: a rejection at the 12HR 21MA and the price action falls back below the 1, 4 and 6HR moving averages it just gotten above.

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