Tesla is Looking to Follow the Dominant Trend

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Well finally there's something to look at. Ascending Triangles usually breakout in the direction of the Dominant Trend before the pattern formed so my expectation is a drop to $223 in the near term. The MFI is also pretty weak and the TSI is looking like it's about to break back down below the center line in the next week. Overall this is Not looking Bullish.

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As above... Further to my previous chart I'm maintaining my stance of a pending price drop and a 50% Fibonacci retracement from the existing short term Rising Wedge would confirm a drop to $223. Unrealistic Investor Exhuberance imho is the only thing keeping the price propped up at the moment.

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For those of you thinking Long Term, this weekly chart can help with your planning for 2024. There are 2 potential long term Flag Patterns that have formed, one is Bearish and the other is Bullish. From the potential Breakout Points, the length of the Bearish Flag Pole could signal a potential drop to $84 and the Bullish Flag Pole could signal a Rise to $363... To be honest it's just a hunch but unless Disaster hits Tesla the Bearish scenario just does not seam realistic, however a rise to $363 in 2024 is very real as sales begin to ramp up some more... So if the price drops to $223 and you secure a long term position and it hits my target of $363 next year, that's a rise of $140 for a % increase on your investment of 62.3%... I like those odds.... : )

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Well as far as I can see the Dominant Trend remains intact. The Bearish Wedge is most likely a Breakdown although on occasion the pattern fizzles, but I'm of the opinion it won't. I had previously thought $223.00 was the potential however It could hit $219.00 as far as what I'm currently seeing. The higher highs and higher lows are the classic setup and with the MFI Looking to follow a Bearish Divergence, you know what I say, Price follows the MFI and if it's dropping while the price is rising then it's just a matter of time.

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So here we are on December 11th with another down day and the candle just staying inside the bottom wedge line. I thought it was appropriate to show the progression of the currant move. Both the 50 and 200 day ema's will act as support but failing that the next move is still expected to $223.00. I think many investors are and will continue to take profits now through the end of the year putting pressure on the markets as ther's alot of gift buying to be done. A New Year's Rally may not start till January 3rd.

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Not a lot has changed since I last posted, though there was a breakout above the Bearish Dominant Trendline, the overall tone is still Bearish. I am currantly not holding any shares as I believe the share price is at least $30-40 above where it should be at this point in time based as their sales and near term projected revenues.

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A very clear break of the Bearish Rising Wedge. The Fibonacci Lines show some of the potential moves. Personally I believe $228.17 is realistic and $218 likely oversold but with any other bad news $205 has potential. I just charted the NDX 100 and believe a Market pullback over the next 3-4 months is possible and Tesla will move with the market.

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As in the Chart above there is a Long Term Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern that has yet to finish playing out however the Bearish Short Term Rising Wedge is just a continuation of what I have been saying for several weeks now and though it is showing a worst case scenario at $197.00 that would confirm as a recent double bottom should it happen as the price had hit at that point at the end of October. Trade this carefully, don't rush into anything as Patience will be rewarded.

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Here's something to keep your eyes on in the Chart above. This Bottom Signal is usually 98% accurate when it forms. See the chart values on November 1st for the PPO and the ADX. I'm looking for them both to pull together again to signal a bottom. Usually a PPO of minus 8 to minus 10 or lower with an ADX of plus 22 or higher to +30. It doesn't happen often but when it does it's usually a significant move.

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Looking at this weekly chart should really clear up any misunderstandings as to what I've been projecting. This really shows greater downward potential to some of my previous targets that I projected. Even with the Financials close approaching if there is a bounce I believe it to be small and short lived with a return to the downward trend. I'm just not seeing anything Bullish that is sustainable.

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On the previous 4 occurances when the MFI was oversold at or near this current level the Price subsequently moved up a minimum of 25% however each time presented a differant set of circumstances and on this occasion there appears to be more bad news than good... Is it possible that Tesla will still show an earnings surprise and the Price will bounce on Wednesday next week or will this be the exception to the year and the price remains oversold for a longer time period?

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This chart is a tough read. Overall it is still very bearish however with a 76% retracement from the recent high I'd have to say it may be tradeable for some short term gains to the upside. The big question however is how to mitigate your risk. The price may rise $15 in the next 3 days and then after the financials could drop $20. Buy the Rumour and Sell the news? With the MFI also having bottomed out as well as the PPO and ADX indicators pulling together this could now be the turn around we want, however, Musk has now opted out for further Price cuts and is looking for a huge Payday with Tesla in order to scale up SpaceEx. If the BOD decides to give him the payday he wants, will the Investors Love it and send the stock soaring or hate it because it increases the Float and dilutes the shares even further? Right now the 200 day EMA is at $233.00 and the 50 day EMA is at $236.... they are pretty darn close and if the 50 crosses back over the 200 that is considered a Death Cross and could see Tesla fall well below $200 possibly back to $167... So do you take a risk now for a few % or continue to sit this out waiting for a Firm Reversal Confirmation?
The reward is possibly + 12% gains in the short term on a potential run back up to $237.00. If you decide to buy set very tight stop loss settings on your trade. If it does a hard reversal and you're out at a small loss that would even be considered a benefit because if the Death Cross forms you'll easily make your money back buying in even lower. I would NOT average down Ever. Trade well, and Always Protect your Capital.

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Looking at the near term for Tesla there could yet be a small bounce from the current level based on the Money Flow Index being way over sold and with any Good News and/or surprises that may be anounced out of what may already be expected.
The True Strength index however is showing that the Bearish trend is going to maintain it's current strength and the Death Cross is looming closer to form within the next 1-2 weeks and if it does my relatively short term targets are flagged on this chart and coincide with lines of support and resistance from 1 year back.

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First of all I want to draw to your attention that in the 2 charts immediately below you I am showing a Long Term Triangle Pattern that began at the end of April Last year. The longer the Pattern Duration the greater of it's potential validity. As of today there was a Bearish breakout of the pattern AH where the price has been pushed to $195.00. Now having said that imho Tesla would not drop that low unless they were on the verge of Bankruptcy and that'll never happen in my lifetime. Tesla is judged primarily for it's EV's but is way more than just EV's and you don't get to a 1/2 trillion $ valuation for no reason. However it can go lower than the current value and the third chart will show that below.

This next chart is showing the near term potential move for the price. When the Death Cross forms however, there is a definite chance for the price to drop to around $163 before the end of summer but I'll have to reassess each week as additional news may come out.

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So from the chart immediately above I nailed the Potential Near term price channel as the price dropped and is trading around $183 and now I'm again looking at a weekly chart below using Andrews Pitchfork to determine the overall expected direction for the next several weeks. The Red Pitchfork is the Actual expected move and the Green is a Hypothetical move based on a Potential 3rd point using a 100% Fibonacci retracement from the move up that started October 31/23 and ended Dec. 28th with the recent High.

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Here's a little bit of Education in Technical Analysis. Anyone that's been following me will have seen this with my charts. This is the True Strength Oscillator for the Tesla Chart. TSI Shows 3 things. When the Oscillator is above the Centerline the Bulls are in Control and below the Centerline the Bears are in Control. Also it shows Divergence and if you note the circumstance of the drawn Bearish Divergence Line with the Oscilator crossing the trigger line on Jan. 2nd and the 9th over the center line, those were your first two big sell signals. Finally the third area of interest is the depth of the lines at -45, a level not seen since early January last year when the price had bottomed out. One of the confirmation signals that I'll be looking for that a reversal is in progress would be any of those doing the opposite to what we see here now. FWIW it looks like there is good support at the current levels so keep an eye on these as they just might be the confirmation we want to take our position when it occurs. The other signals shown are also ones that I had shown and spoke about days or weeks in advance to be watching out for so anybody following me should not have been caught off guard with the most recent drop in the price Points for Tesla.

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So this latest analysis is following all of my primary indicators and showing where the greatest confluence of arrows up and down are indicating the tradeable trends with greatest potential for profit. Now of course many of you will be saying Hind sight is 20/20 however the big takeaway is that these are not day trades, these are moderate term swing trades of several weeks in duration where you may not necessarily catch the exact top or bottom however on each occasion you could make a minimum of 10-20% and more both UP and DOWN if you are also Shorting. One of the more reliable indicators amongst this group for a reversal is the TSI as you can see however I must stress that it is a combination or confirmation of more than one indicator before taking a new position or selling an existing position to preserve your profits. Right now Tesla looks strong and has been trading as if a bottom may already be made however I want to see a bullish crossover of the TSI oscillator line above the trigger line before taking a position. A further move above the zero line along with the other signals and it would be a Bullish Trend.

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Here's another look at the Weekly chart and so far it's really showing Bearish Signals all over regardless of the current upward movement. A significant Break however above $188 will be a difinitive sign of a trend reversal that will be more visible on the Daily Chart. On my latest chart above from yesterday the primary direction was showing as Bullish but it's just the strength of the movement that I've yet to determine as to whether it'll run or fizzle.

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For those of you following me I trade with some fairly strict parameters to protect my capital however I did say a solid close above $188 and I will be taking a new position so possibly this week. Though the Weekly chart is very bearish yet overall the daily chart shows a Bullish Bias with more potential upside. The TSI indicator is one of my main triggers of several and is starting to look more convincing of a new trend but not yet conclusive. All but the worst of my downside targets have been met and with 1900 Institutal Investors backing Tesla there was Very Strong Support at $180.00 so for now I'm calling a bottom at that level and let's see if this keeps Creeping back up to the targets in black that also act as Resistance, though a Retest of the recent lows is still possible. Trade carefully.

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I've decided to take a new position with Tesla as I called the bottom at $180 and believe there is more upside potential than down at this point. Most of my indicators now are bullish and gaining strength and yesterdays candle moved above the 7 day ema for the first time in 5 weeks. As well, Tesla likes to swing above and below the 50 day ema so there is a likelyhood that it should move back up to the $217 level within the next several weeks.

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Well it's been a long time since I updated this Idea but I have posted to the Tesla Forum my belief that Tesla has been trading inside a Bearish Rising Web for Nearly a Month now and the Pattern will conclude within the Next 2 weeks with a breakout. Th3e big question is will it breakout in the traditional Bearish Move and go back down to $180 or will it move in contradiction to the pattern and Breakout to the upside. What a Conundrum for us traders... So far imho Tesla has been Bucking the Trend, albeit on lower volume than usual so I've taken to analysing the Weekly Chart instead and it paints a slightly different picture with a LONG TERM Bull Flag having formed and Potential for a Breakout to the Upside lasting several months with significent targets to be met although the big question is the timeline for which this run would be achieved. Although in my chart I'm showing a 1 year long simulation it could be longer or shorter in duration. At this point I must say that any short term retracements will be met with a Super Strong Level of Resistance at $180 that I don't believe would be broken so if asking yourself "Is this a Good Entry Point as an Investor" I would say Yes because there is much more upside potential than there is Down. Judge yourself accordingly, set a trading plan and stick to it.

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Well the investors have spoken and going into earnings 5 weeks away there will noit be anything to celebrate.

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My Targets are in Black for the next 5 weeks going into earnings.Most likely is $163. The only thing imho that might change the current trajectory would be a resolution to Musk's pay package and with the current stock performance the Board of directors would be hard pressed to approve it if Musk's legal team loses their appeal. The other note is that if he wins with the current performance and overall EV market right now such a generaous package might be construed as bad for the economic outlook of the company in the short term and punish the stock further.

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So here we are again with more bad news for Tesla with a Major Downgrade and the rug has been pulled out from under us, however as my title imployes Tesla is looking to follow the dominant trend and that certainly hasn't changed. With all the noise and charting that I've looked at with patterns and indicators the one that I failed to notice till just now when it Lept off the page in front of me is the Bear Flag as I have clearly marked it on the chart. There are several indicators showing the Bearish trend with confirmations all over the place however this is a particularly strong pattern and the height of the flag pole at $89 determines the potential drop from the breakout point and in this case I've marked it in orange on the chart at $110... Now keep in mind this is a Potential Target but certainly a possibility so if you're thinking to jump on the band wagon to catch the next reversal you may be stuck with more shares averaging down. Wait for a clear Bottom confirmation first with several indicators. For now the current trend remains intact.

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We all know that any good news whatsoever can move Tesla up but it will need to be huge news to pull them out of this multi-month slump. Especially with their next Financials already expected to be somewhat poor and to not beat the estimates; using the Fib Retracement Indicator I can see $157 a Likely Target and $127 a worst case scenario. Of course $127 would be a Blessing in disguise. ; )

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Tesla released their Production Numbers finally and as expected they were not good and that will transition into the Quarterly Financials coming up in just over 2 weeks. This should not come as a surprise to anyone that has been following my charts or the news for Tesla and the world wide EV market.

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I thought it was appropriate at this time to give an update given the next quarterly financials will be released after 7 more trading sessions. Late in the day this past Friday after yet another strong down day for Tesla, Elon Musk Tweeted that on August 8th they will reveal the ROBOTAXI, and there was also some talk on X about their new Tuc Tuc, that would be released for the East Indian market although that info was tweeted by others and not EM and there was no official news release for either. I'm speculating this Tweet was strategically done at this time by EM as a Tourniquet for the expected rather poor QF's.
All politics aside, the chart is showing several things. First of all we see the Double Bear Flag (previously identified) as well as a Breakdown from the second flag that has lead to a Double Bottom as shown by the Harmonic Pattern or W Pattern as it is beginning to form. The double bottom in both cases was exactly $160.51. This harmonic Pattern uses Fibonacci Lines to identify the next potential move up and that would be to $184.41 to complete the pattern with the target of this formation moving up to $208.13. My concern however is that the Fib Line at $184.41 also represents an extremely strong resistance level and given the expected poor financials is likely to hold and turn back any advancement should it even reach this level. I did add in an overlay of a Fib Retracement indicator as well that shows the High Point Extention off of this Double Bottom up to $261.76 but that may not be till Dec. 2025. If the rejection at $184.41 holds that would then set up a Rectangle Pattern however this is still somewhat speculative at this point. The other indicators I'm looking at MFI, TSI and ADX are also not showing a lot of strength for a reversal at this time. Either way the next 2 weeks should be wild.

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I guess I don't always update this Idea as much as I should because I'm often posting updates with charts at the Tesla Forum such as the third Bear Flag in a row that suggested yet again that another significant drop was going to happen and the last few days it did. So now we're just 2 day's before the next Quarterly Financials are to be released and we know they're expected to be poor so most of the current price movement may already be built in, however looking at this monthly chart it spells further weakness ahead. My Targets are all in Black. Notice how the 7 day EMA has just Bearishly Crossed the 50day EMA? That's the first time since October 1st of 2019 when it had a Bullish crossover of the 50 day EMA. That's a 4.5 year transition from start to finish. I suspect for the most part this Bear Trend with Tesla should remain through the rest of this Fiscal Year and 2025 will be the stock's resurgence. This however doesn't mean the world is coming to an end and there will be definite tradeable moments for those so inclined but overall it will be a long while yet before we see a definitive Long Term Trend Reversal.