QuantSignals V3 | TSLA High-Probability Weekly PUT Trade

TSLA QuantSignals V3 – Weekly PUT Trade (2025-11-19)

Trade Signal:

Direction: BUY PUTS (Short)

Strike Price: $402.50

Entry Range: $8.35–$8.45 (mid $8.40)

Target 1: $12.60 (50% gain)

Target 2: $16.80 (100% gain)

Stop Loss: $5.88 (30% risk)

Expiry: 2025-11-21 (2 days)

Position Size: 3% of portfolio

Confidence: 65% (Medium)

Market Analysis:

Trend: NEUTRAL overall, short-term bearish bias (-0.67% predicted decline)

Price Action: Current $401.88, trading below VWAP $406.38

Technicals: EMA bearish, weekly momentum neutral (-0.61%), key support $380.97, resistance $432.75

Options Flow: Put/Call Ratio 1.39, institutional put-heavy positioning

Volatility: Rising VIX (19.83 vs 18.44 avg) indicates increasing market nervousness

News Sentiment: Mixed; positive news not lifting price, sector skepticism present

Competitive Edge:

Katy AI downside prediction combined with strong bearish options flow and technical weakness

$402.50 strike balances risk/reward near-the-money

Mid-week entry captures potential late-week volatility

Tight stop loss mitigates gamma risk

Risk Notes:

2-day expiry creates high gamma and time decay risk

Rising VIX may increase premiums but also volatility

Moderate conviction requires careful position sizing

Monitor actively through expiration