Short Tesla

업데이트됨

As you might have seen i have not traded for almost 4/5 weeks and there is a good reason behind it. When i saw the markets behaving erratically, every negative news being considered positive , iran issue/risk impact completely neglected ,focus on trade deal phase 1 (which aint even full of promises), tweets from trump and so on, i decided to sit back and just observe until i see a clear direction.

The wait has been long but fruitful considering nasdaq went from 8.2k to 9.1k within this span and this i think is extremely overdone.

Coming to tesla, what can i say. as you might see in my previous post, i shorted tesla at 340s , for short term and boy i was so right to not hold it long. Around 330s/320s i took profit. and waited for a short squeeze since the rumors were extremely positive, gigafactory finished within 10 months (which i think is quite an achievement), tesla cybertruck, getting loan from chinese gov etc.

Yes all looks amazing and well but right now like i mentioned they are just rumors. And even if they are more than rumors, the jump from 55million marketcap to around 95 million within a span of 3 months is extremely overdone. But that is what cult stock usually do. I love elon musk and he is a visionary but an auto company selling 375k cars and having a market cap of more than two big automakers combined is not justified (FORD and GM).

Why I call tesla a cult stock?
1. Elon musk is considered a god and his followers consider him iron man, the visionary and etc etc
2. Tesla is an EV auto company and yet the fanboys/followers justify it as a battery, electric, technology, automotive, solar panel , and even extreme people call it a space company. spacex is a completely different company, and putting it together with tesla is not just dumb but shows that people dont even know what they are buying. Imagine tesla actually selling RVs? Then the fanboys will justify the company as not just automotive but also furniture, rental and rooftop company. Tesla IS AN AUTO COMPANY. whether you like it or not.
3. You cant just criticize neither elon nor any of his products -> Just try it. I challenge you. in any social media. you will be bombarded with insults and whatnot without even looking at your complaints.
4. Huge parabolic rise of shares based on just the idea and rumours-> someone recalls BYND, cannabis stocks?
5. Upgrades after upgrades by analysts when the shares are rising parabolically based on nothing concrete yet rumours.

I am not denying that tesla has positives. Tesla is leading EV race right now. You cant deny it. Its battery tech is superior. Yet unless it outpaces its competitors in selling the number of cars, and not just rumors but concrete data , then i will be buying its shares. i dont think tesla is worth more than 350 usd at the present performance point (considering half the rumours to be actually fulfilled as well).

in april when FED finally stops pumping money into the markets, and there is a trend reversal and also after tesla reports its earnings, it will be interesting to see how far the stock will plunge.

Analysis:
i am short on Tesla from yesterday at 525 Usd.

Tp1 500
Tp2 470 (fibo retracement around 285 might be a good resistance so adjust it between 280-285)
Tp3 440

I will stop at 440, and wait for further proper direction.

액티브 트레이드

take profit 1 hit. i will open another short in case tesla goes back again above 530, which is truly possible considering the amount of buys getting triggered below 500, and as mentioned the cult stock status for this is far from over.

액티브 트레이드

as expected the short squeeze continues and i expected around 550 Usd price to be tested but it has gone up a bit more. I opened again my third short (i closed the first short with profit as you see above) now at around 593usd. remember to use low equity (i use 1-1.5% of my equity) and low or no leverage. I use x1-x2.

Tp1 is again 500 which is possible to be tested based on earnings

액티브 트레이드

Tesla's earnings looks impressive on paper if you just focus on their EPS and revenue but if you read between the lines, you will see that the USA sales are dropping, their YOY revenues have fallen and with corona virus outbreak and closing of shanghai factory , i am quite surprised with this rally. neverthlesss its good for me since now i added another short (i did not close my short at 590 from where tesla went down to 550s). so this will be my 4th short. but i will raise now my TP targets for the last three shorts to 550. just to take profit in between and reinvest