Toast, Inc.

Tost fails breakout

35
Tost failed the breakout and I lost 120$ on my call. I am fine with this as I wanted some level of upside. My plan was to enter if the stock dumped and it has. I have started with 100 shares and have already locked in some profits from cash secured puts. My rule is to always close the puts if they are up 50% in a day and they were. Chart wise we note a falling volatility and momentum. This is still within the wedge, short interest in not massive. I am still bullish on the weekly.

Summary of bullish earnings:

In the fourth quarter, recurring gross profit streams climbed 39% year over year; adjusted EBITDA hit $111 million, an 18-percentage-point rise from the year before. Software-as-a-service average revenue per user rose 5%; yearly recurring revenue jumped 32%. Having full-year originations of more over $1 billion, Toast Capital made $43 million in gross profit. Driven by expense control and pricing tweaks, the business produced $134 million in free cash flow and saw a 56 basis point net take rate improvement.

From 32% to 33% growth in 2024, toast forecasts consistent gross profit streams to rise between 23% and 25% in 2025. With a 30% margin at the midway, the business predicted adjusted EBITDA between $510 million and $530 million. Toast predicts adjusted EBITDA between $100 million and $110 million and gross profit growth of 27% to 30% for the first quarter of 2025; stronger growth is projected in the second half of the year. Targeting more than 10,000 client sites in both domestic and international markets, the business intends to boost research and development funding as well as go-to-market growth.

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