$TX 10Yr has done well while short term yields stagnant, oh oh

2023년 9월 13일

It's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields.

The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability.
BUT
The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes.

We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens.

Soft landing, economy slowly recovers
OR
Lower rates, usually = consequences

Guess which is the historical?

TNX