10Y Treasuries target 6% in an overextended wave 5

2022년 6월 5일

The market is still convinced that everything will turn out just fine and treasury yields are something that the Fed can easily lower if they want to. Well, no, my dears. Ignorance won't save you :)

Never underestimate the power of the last overextended wave 5. Once the 10Y paper starts moving above 3% the worldwide repricing of all yielding assets will begin and it will not be pretty.
Apple can easily lose 75% of its current value and the rest of the market will follow. A spectacular run into the Dollar and the Yen will bring EURUSD to below 0.7999, USRJPY below 100, ERUJPY below 92.

As far as the recent geopolitical events are concerned, US and EU will lose because they will run out of cash, and Russia will win because it has got oil, gas and low debt. After the dust settles and peace treaties are signed to a great disadvantage of the West and Ukraine, a tremendous bullish wave in RTSI will begin (from ~200 to 4000 - very realistic). I reside on the winning side, so I do feel really good about this, especially that the future developments look so extremely obvious.