TMV - Inverse 20 year treasury

1월 16일

TMV broke out of a downtrend at the end of 2023 and gapped up with todays open. I'm playing this shift in momentum tightly. I'm entering here and planning to take profit at 36.77, which aligns to the volume weighted average price anchored to 5/19/23 (entering consolidation prior to July 2023 breakout) and 10/19/23 (last strong buying day prior to 2023 peak). This is also just under the 0.382 fib of a retrace from the October high.

This move is invalidated if we fall below ~30.33, which is half of a 21 period ATR below the VWAP anchored to 12/21 (highest volume buying near the December low).

Note, today also marks record high buying volume for TMV. The second highest was 2/25/21, within one month of a local top. The third highest was 5/18/23, one month after a local bottom.

I set a fib time zone from a high prior to consolidation at 5/26/23 to the 6/23/23 low during consolidation. It aligns closely to changes in direction. The next is early May 2024.