TLT - 9.43 R:R Short

2019년 8월 15일

Evening traders, been a while since I shared my thoughts.

I'm looking to enter short on TLT, as it's approaching historic over-extension.

Let's dive in at the key points:

1) It's gapped up and will likely close outside the BB, should lead to down movement next week.
2) Short term squeeze has begun to trigger, this week is likely the top.
3) RSI is overbought and approaching historic levels.
4) Stoch is overbought
5) Percentage volume oscillator shows trend strength is reducing.
6) We have bearish divergence on money flow.

A re-trace towards mid bb band / .5 is likely in order, if the weekly 5 EMA is supported I will exit the trade as there would be another leg up in store. This should coincide with one more up for the markets.

From a fundamental point, after inversion I believe market continues for 7 months upward, yes, I know, this time is different. Rates are low, fed doesn't have much ammo, corporate debt is outta control, I know, I know. The chart doesn't lie though, I think we will have one more up in the markets before the big collapse, and it just so happens I believe bonds are topping temporarily now as well.


As always, hit that like and follow button and let me know your opinion!