TLT Part 1

2023년 2월 17일

I've been saying all week that TLT needs to go below $100, pretty obvious looking at the chart. I'm assuming a bounce at "support", but if the Fed keeps talking about .50 in March then it could blow right through it.

Bond traders are about to lose all of their profit for the calendar year..... You'd think they would use trailing stops.... maybe not I dunno, I am NOT a bond expert, certainly not in terms of trading bonds.

2023년 2월 17일

노트

This does leave me wondering what the mark to market losses will be for banks next quarter....

2023년 2월 17일

노트

Expecting TLT to move up Tuesday, if it hits $103 I'm getting back into puts. Probably 2 weeks out expiration, TLT can be a bit difficult to predict on a daily basis.

2023년 2월 17일

노트

GS & BoA now expect 3 rate hike this year. Banks predicting increasing rates yet the market has a rate inversion priced in for next year (see my US02Y - US01Y plot). Something has to give.

Article:
reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-sachs-now-expects-three-more-fed-rate-hikes-2023-2023-02-17/