THCBTC - Chance?

First of all, i am not a financial advisor and this is not to be taken as a investment opportunity. I am a newb trader and making first steps in TA.

Looking at the current downtrend of THC, wave 4 has just begun.
I am using the fib retracement reversed, as i want to measure the retracement of the downtrend. I hope that is clear to everyone.
As you can see wave 2 retraced by 61.8%, that's why i am shooting for 38.2% retracement of wave 3.

BUT wave 3 hasn't hit the lower downtrend line yet. So it still might dip a bit before it goes back up.

That could make 60% in 10 days, with a RR of 1.75:1 with stop loss below downtrend channel.

What do you guys think?
Do you think it's possible? Risky? Or a sure shot?

Leave a comment on my first published analysis! :)

Thanks for reading guys!
Saki