TCS Under Pressure – Will Visa Heat Trigger ₹3000 Levels..?

Currently, TCS is trading near the crucial resistance zone of ₹3200, which also carries high open interest. From a technical perspective, if the stock breaks and closes below the short-term support of ₹3150, we can look for a short entry on retest, with targets:

* 🎯 Target 1: ₹3080
* 🎯 Target 2: ₹3000



📰 Fundamental / News Catalyst

The recent US H-1B visa policy update imposing a $100,000 fee on new petitions triggered a knee-jerk reaction in IT stocks:

* U.S.-listed Indian IT firms saw an immediate 2-5% decline.
* Analysts expect the impact on TCS to be limited, since a large part of its U.S. workforce is locally hired and renewals/existing visas are exempt.
* Worst-case estimates suggest a 3-5% downside in the short term, but not a structural collapse for large, diversified players like TCS.



📊 Impact Outlook on TCS

Short Term (days–weeks):

* Investor sentiment may turn negative, causing selling pressure.
* Margin compression possible due to new visa costs.
* Analysts could revise earnings growth expectations lower.
* Offsetting factors: Renewals exempt, TCS has a solid U.S. local workforce, and offshore flexibility.

Medium Term (months):

* New contracts may factor in higher costs.
* Shift to offshore delivery could reduce higher-margin onsite revenues.
* More local U.S. hiring may raise costs.
* Offsetting factors: TCS’s scale allows cost absorption; some costs may be passed to clients.

Long Term (year+):

* Delivery model may shift further to offshore/local U.S. hiring.
* Competitive pressure if peers adapt faster in the U.S. market.
* Margins could be under pressure.
*Offsetting factors: Strong global brand, diversified business, investments in AI & automation can offset long-term risks.



🔎 Scenarios for Share Price

* Mild Reaction: 3-5% decline → cautious investors, limited disruption.
* Moderate Reaction: 8-12% decline → project delays, client pushback, stricter visa rules.
* Severe Reaction: 15-20%+ decline → contract losses, earnings downgrades, tighter U.S. policy.



✅ Conclusion

* 📌 Technicals: Watch ₹3150 for breakdown confirmation; short entries possible below this with ₹3080 / ₹3000 as downside targets.
* 📌 Fundamentals: News-driven weakness is likely, but structural risk to TCS remains limited vs smaller IT peers.
* 📌 Strategy: Short-term bearish setup aligns with both technical chart structure and negative sentiment from visa policy changes.



📌 Sentiment: Bearish (Short Term)