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Focus On Politics Now: STOXX 50

업데이트됨

Turn your attention now to geopolitics. 2016 all technical anaylsis had been wrong - and not pollsters only.

To predict any direction of European Stockmarkets trader needs to understand precisely what´s about the upcomming elections in Europe.

This trading idea is focused on the EuroSTOXX 50 but linked to the Election in Germany, Netherlands, Italy and the Euro -0.62% as well. Follow up the updates here.

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FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires on Netherlands far right wing party. Expect same for Marine Le Pen.

Quote: With his uncompromising language about immigration and Islam, Geert Wilders has been stirring up Dutch politics for several years now. But since the election campaign in the Netherlands formally began Wednesday, polls have shown that his popularity is on shaky ground. His far-right Freedom party (PVV) still holds an advantage over the ruling Conservative (VDD) party, but one that is narrowing.
Wendy Jansma, a 29 year-old healthcare student, was considering voting for Wilders. She likes that he has “the guts” to talk about problems, and is willing to put Dutch people ahead of newcomers. But the behaviour of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has caused her to reconsider. “I am afraid when I look at Trump – I don’t want to have someone like that in power here. That would be taking a big risk,” she told Vice News.
Quote: news.vice.com/story/dutch-politician-geert-wilders-kicks-off-election-campaign-with-anti-immigrant-message

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FEB 17 2017: Europes Voters are getting more scared about Trump

Todays topic is yesterdays Trumps meeting with "the press". People getting scared about Donald Trump. Latest poll in Germany is showing, that 78% of all Germans now scared (!) about Trump. Same time far right parties losing massively voters in Europe. The latest opionion poll in the netherlands is showing a dramatic loss of Voters for Wilders. If ever this numbers migh be confirmed in the next days than Wilders lost 40% (!) of all voters sind Trumps inauguration. de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentswahl_in_den_Niederlanden_2017

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FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low with 38

Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Source: gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

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FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"

Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling.
“The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source: ft.com/content/0f1fdff6-f469-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608

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Comment: Comment: FEB 18 2017: Trumps approval rates on record lows. What does this means (historically)?

Read more:
Quote: Disapproval
Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Down. How Much Does It Mean?
Source: nytimes.com/2017/02/17/upshot/trump-is-down-to-38-approval-how-much-does-it-mean.html?_r=0

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FEB 18 2017: Washington PR offensive fails to quell Europe's anxiety over Trump

Quote:
Commodities16 minutes ago (Feb 18, 2017 04:31PM ET)

By Noah Barkin

MUNICH (Reuters) - One month into the unusual presidency of Donald Trump, his most senior cabinet members were deployed to Brussels, Bonn and Munich this week to reassure nervous Europeans that everything would be okay. ...
.... "Pence and Mattis and Tillerson can come here and talk about the importance of the transatlantic relationship and NATO - and that is all good," said Elmar Brok, head of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament and a party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we don't know what's coming on Twitter tomorrow morning," he said, referring to Trump's penchant for spilling out policy statements via social media. Source: investing.com/news/commodities-news/washington-pr-offensive-fails-to-quell-europe's-anxiety-over-trump-460798

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FEB 18 2017: Maybe this is the reason why Donald Trump rallies today in Florida

Drama mounts on Capitol Hill over Trump and Russia ties, 2016 election interference

Here’s how Congress is handling Russia investigations
Leigh Ann Caldwell
2 Hours Ago

Drama is building on Capitol Hill over current and potential investigations into Russia's alleged interference in last year's election and the pre-inauguration contacts between President Donald Trump's national security adviser and Russia's ambassador. At the end of a week's worth of new revelations and a resignation, FBI Director James Comey held a closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee Friday.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/18/heres-how-congress-is-handling-russia-investigations.html

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JAN 19 2017: Trump backfires European far right wing parties: Germany´s AfD lost 50% of all likely voters within 4 month only.

Latest poll from today is showing Germany´s anti EU and anti Muslim Party AfD droped to 9% of likely voters in the September election. This is a huge loss of 50% of all likely voters. One day before Trumps inauguration opinon polls showing the AfD to win at least 16-18%.

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JAN 20 2017: Investor´s Sentiment highly bearish

Investor´s Sentiment, Europe, Germany:

Today´s Handelsblatt.com survey is saying

1. Pro´s put buying at Germany´s Eurex is as high as before the U.S. election.
2. Retail Investors Sentiment is most negative sind 2015.
Source: handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/dax-umfrage-warum-kein-absturz-am-deutschen-aktienmarkt-bevorsteht/19395102-2.html

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FEB 20 2017 Bond Traders Sentiment highly bearish as well.

Bond Traders Are Placing Euro-Breakup Bets Again

Quote:
by Stephen Spratt
Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question. Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/euro-zone-political-risks-lead-to-subtle-hedges-in-bond-markets

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Comment: FEB 21 2017: Euro zone businesses growth fastest since April 2011: PMIs
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-businesses-growth-fastest-since-april-2011:-pmis-461114

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FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it

John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/21/border-tax-hits-political-reality-and-only-trump-can-save-it.html

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FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today: invst.ly/3bcph invst.ly/3bcpm

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FEB 22 2017: Only one side can be right.

1. Markets:
Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen
Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure: cnbc.com/2017/02/22/euro-plummets-to-6-week-lows-as-le-pens-presidential-bid-looms-socgen.html

or:

2. Facts:
Germany´s far right wing and antie EU and anti Islam Party AfD dropped today to 8% of likely voters fro 18% last year. This is a huge loss of 60% of all likely voters since August 2016.
spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-faellt-in-forsa-umfrage-auf-acht-prozent-a-1135756.html

Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017.
n-tv.de/politik/Wilders-rauscht-ins-Umfragetief-article19714264.html

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FEB 22 2017: BREAKING: French centrist politician Bayrou says will not stand in presidential election; will back Macron
twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/834427741042798592

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FEB 22 2017: Far-right PVV losing seats, liberals remain stable, polls shows.

Today´s facts about Netherland elections: Donald Trump backfires European far right wing parties. politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-and-geert-wilders-neck-and-neck-in-dutch-poll/

Quote: Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are in a dead heat in the lead-up to the March 15 Dutch election, according to a poll published Wednesday. Analyst Tom Louwerse told local media that while Rutte’s party has been relatively stable over the course of the past few weeks, Wilders’ has been on a slight downward trajectory, sliding from an expected 35 seats in polls last month. Both Wilders and Rutte are likely to fall short of an absolute majority in parliament. Rutte has ruled out cooperating with the far right to maintain power.

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FEB 22 2017 Le Pen top aide put under formal investigation
World News | Wed Feb 22, 2017 | 4:42pm EST

The chief of staff of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was put under formal investigation on Wednesday after a day of questioning over the alleged misuse of EU funds to pay parliamentary assistants, a judicial source said. Catherine Griset was taken into custody for questioning along with Le Pen's bodyguard Thierry Legier, who was later released without being put under investigation, according to the source.
Source: reuters.com/article/us-france-election-lepen-idUSKBN1610XQ?il=0

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FEB 23 2017: Wilders PVV loosing more ground. Dutch Prime Ministers Rutte´s PVV Party is taking the lead now.
Todays polls:
VVD: 28 Seats
PVV: 26 Seats
Source: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentswahl_in_den_Niederlanden_2017

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FEB 23 Februar: The Washington Post counted 133 false or misleading claims in the first 35 days of Trump´s Presidency. US-Traders might underestimate that European Voters have a diffrent view on Trumps lies. Some of Trumps lies are about European Countries and had been answered allready on Trump twitter account by European Citizens. Trumps repeated lies backfires European far right parties. washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims/

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FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting

Marine LePen: 26%
Emanuel Macron: 23,5%

This is the highest number of likely voteres for Macron and might explain the sharp drop in France Government Yields today and in the last three days. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters trun away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Source: dn.se/nyheter/varlden/fake-sweden-expert-on-fox-news-has-criminal-convictions-in-us-no-connection-to-swedish-security/

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FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely.
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835325771858251776

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FEB 27 2017: New France Poll: Marcron narrows gap to LePen for first round of France election to 1,5%.
Macron: 24,5%
LePen: 26%
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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FEB 28 2017: France's Marine Le Pen may be losing election momentum — and investors like it

Qute: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.
A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
French 10-year yield in 2016
fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2017/02/1488299610_Untitled.png
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-losing-momentum-in-france.html

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Comment: MAR 04 2017: French shares climb as Marine Le Pen loses ground. Euro gains 1,09% income day only to highest levels in 2 weeks.
irishtimes.com/business/markets/french-shares-climb-as-marine-le-pen-loses-ground-1.2997149

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MAR 05 2017 World News | Sun Mar 5, 2017 | 3:13pm GMT
Pressure mounts on France's Fillon as party heavyweights look to Juppe
Source: uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-idUKKBN16C0GM

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MAR 05 2017 France's Fillon makes no promises to stay as party fights for electoral survival
investing.com/news/world-news/senior-french-centrist-urges-fillon-to-step-down-for-juppe-463855

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MAR 07 2017: The Dutch election is a dead heat, and the stakes for the EU could be huge

Do not underestimate the markets view about stockmarkets action

Quote: he French presidential election is grabbing all the headlines in Europe, but another contest may serve as an indicator for France's election — and Europe's future.

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on March 15, and right now the race is a dead heat between Geert Wilders — leader of the populist Party of Freedom (PVV) — and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who leads the more moderate People's Party for Freedom (VVD).
Markets will be watching the Dutch contest not just to get a sense of who may win the French election, but to gauge the likelihood of the European Union's disintegration.
"That could be the canary in the coal mine," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the Dutch election. "This could be a preview of what could happen in the French election."
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-election-and-geert-wilder-future-of-european-union.html

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MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst

Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-populist-wilders-loses-ground-in-the-polls-as-trump-effect-comes-into-play-analyst.html

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MAR 08 2017: Wilder far right party loosing more ground now

PVV: 23 Seats
VVD: 25 Seats

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MAR 08 2017: Wilders anti muslim and anti EU party PVV losses accelerating one week bevore election day.

PVV: 20 Seats
VVD: 24 Seats
Source en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

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MAR 08 2017: For German Traders and Readers

It´s on the frontpage of Germany largest newspaper: Trump backfires European far right parties: bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/europa/rechtspopulisten-im-umfragetief-ist-trump-schuld-50657154,view=conversionToLogin.bild.html

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MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Geert Wilders Is Lagging in the Polls Due to the 'Trump Effect'
Source: time.com/4694764/geert-wilders-lead-slipping-because-trump/

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MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Wilders Feels Trump Burn With Slide in Polls
Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-07/dutch-populist-wilders-feels-trump-burn-as-he-slides-in-polls

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MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/08/frances-macron-seen-on-top-in-first-round-presidential-vote-poll.html

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MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

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March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

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MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-closes-lower%2C-after-healthcare-vote-delay-468437

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MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3?r=US&IR=T

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Comment: MAR 28 2017: Poll shows Macron win in French election in shadow of 'Penelopegate'
investing.com/news/world-news/new-poll-shows-centrist-macron-beating-le-pen-to-win-french-election-469217

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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

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Comment: APR 03 2017: German manufacturing growth reached an reached an almost six-year high in March, Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing showed on Monday. Manufacturing activity in France and Italy also rose, adding to signs of a pickup in momentum in the global economy.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks-start-second-quarter-on-firm-note,-u.s.-policy-in-focus-as-trump-xi-talks-loom-470565

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APR 03 2017: "France will vote in a two-round presidential election at the end this month and at the start of May, with investors worried by the risk that the far-right anti-EU Marine Le Pen could stage a surprise victory"
Source: investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-starts-week-on-back-foot,-keeps-above-4-month-lows-470569

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APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures

Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold
Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down
In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source: bild.de/politik/inland/frauke-petry/that-was-a-serious-challenge-51129132.bild.html

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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43

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APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/06/ecbs-draghi-says-monetary-policy-stance-is-still-appropriate.html

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APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.com
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/french-election-shocker-pollsters-baffled-by-four-way-contest

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APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times
businessinsider.de/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4?r=US&IR=T

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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease

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European stock funds gather momentum as inflows cross all-time record high of $6 billion
cnbc.com/2017/05/12/european-stocks-epfr-deutsche-baml--macron-france-trump.html

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Here's why the gusher of billions into European stocks should continue
Political risks in Europe still exist, but analysts point to recent figures that suggest the euro zone economy is growing at its fastest rate in years, much faster than the U.S. economy.
European focused, U.S.-based domiciled funds alone saw net inflows of $4.2 billion in May, bringing total net flows year-to-date to $9.2 billion.
So far this year investors moved $13.7 billion to European funds.

cnbc.com/2017/05/30/heres-why-the-gusher-of-billions-into-european-stocks-should-continue.html

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All European Long Trades closed on profit taking. For additional information please click on the DAX chart and read further up dates.